Features:

• Draws together the distinct approaches to understanding infectious disease dynamics frequently adopted by statistical epidemiologists and mathematical biologists in the past
• Introduces mechanistic non-linear models of population dynamics, first developed in theoretical ecology, to statisticians unfamiliar with such approaches
• Emphasizes to mathematical biologists the need for statistical rigor in model validation and parametrization
• Demonstrates the power of using a multidisciplinary approach
• Discusses methods in the context of other epidemic models of infectious disease such as measles and AIDS
• Highlights the problems involved in predicting future trends in disease persistence

Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics presents the general methodology required for thorough analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology. BSE in British cattle is the primary example system presented, but application to other diseases, particularly the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (e.g., Scrapie in sheep and nvCJD in humans) are also highlighted. The book concentrates on presenting an exposition of the "state-of-the-art" rather than introductory material on the mathematical/statistical modeling of infectious diseases.

Contents

1. Introduction
   1. Background and Aims
   2. Overview of the Book
   3. BSE AND vCJD
   4. Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies
   5. Transmission Routes
   6. Incubation Period Distributions
   7. The Genetics of TSEs
   8. The Nature of the Aetiological Agent of BSE

2. Sources of Data
   9. BSE Case Databases
   10. Demography of British Cattle
   11. The Maternal Cohort Study
   12. Data on Confirmed vCJD Cases

3. Population Models: Formulation
   13. The Simple Epidemic Process
   14. Introducing Demography
   15. Age-Dependent Susceptibility/Exposure
   16. The Inclusion of Different Transmission Routes
   17. R0 for Systems with Multiple Transmission Routes
   18. Solving the Model
   19. Heterogeneity in Susceptibility
   20. Incidence of Disease
   21. Maximum Likelihood Methods for Back-Calculation
   22. Model Goodness-of-Fit
   23. Confidence and Prediction Intervals

4. Population Models: Results and Sensitivity Analyses
   24. Distributional Forms
   25. Model Results
   26. Cross-Validation of Disease Parameters
   27. Predictions
   28. Maternal Transmission
   29. Horizontal Transmission
   30. Under-Reporting

5. Individual Survival Models
   31. Maternal Risk Enhancement Models
   32. Analysis of the Maternal Cohort Study
   33. Dam-Calf Pairs from the GB Case Database

6. Maternal Risk Enhancement Models: Results
   34. Maternal Cohort Study
   35. The Dam-Calf Pair Data in the GB Case Database
   36. Suckler Calf Data

7. Spatio-Temporal Correlation and Disease Clustering
   37. Spatial Structure of the BSE Epidemic
   38. Clustering of Cases in Holding
   39. At Risk Holdings Model
   40. Probabilistic Clustering Models
   41. Culling Policy Design

8. Metapopulation Models
   42. Holding-Level Survival Models
   43. Stochastic Simulation Models of the BSE Epidemic

9. Predictions and Scenario Analysis for vCJD
   44. Survival Model
   45. Estimation/Scenario Analysis
   46. Determinants of Epidemic Size
   47. Minimum Incubation Period
   48. Epidemic Predictability
   49. Application to UAT Programme Design

10. Future Directions
    50. Updated Back-Calculation Analysis of BSE in GB
    51. vCJD Epidemic Prediction
    52. Scrapie Epidemiology

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